![]() ![]() We identified a substantial and continuing increase of TBE incidence in Örebro County during the study period. ![]() TBE human case data reported between 20 were aggregated into postal codes within Örebro County, south-central Sweden, along with tick abundance and environmental data to analyse spatial patterns and identify drivers of TBE. The research team cautions that the TGW approach is not intended to estimate future changes in the overall frequency of extreme events linked to changes in large-scale atmospheric dynamics.Incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) has increased during the last years in Scandinavia, but the underlying mechanism is not understood. Several past studies have only focused on one event or on a shorter time period." "By applying this technique to such a large historic period and large geographic area, we can also examine how our findings translate to similar events in different contexts. "This approach also provides a perspective on the future that is grounded in our experience of the past, enabling us to systematically examine how those memorable events might play out under various levels of future warming," he says. Jones notes that reproducing known events is useful for validating modeled impacts of these events on society and our adaptive responses. ![]() "For example, these include the deadly Chicago heatwave of 1995 and the back-to-back storms behind the 2017 Oroville dam disaster." "What is especially unique about this approach is that we reproduce known historic events that led to stress on our infrastructure and society," says Jones. "For example," she says, "for each heat wave or cold snap that occurred between 1980–2019, these data sets provide eight future instances of those events that can be used to show how previous challenges to the electricity grid could worsen under more extreme conditions."Īccording to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) scientist Andrew Jones, events captured in the simulations include every type of extreme experienced over the 40-year historic period-droughts, storms, dry wind events that increase the risk for wildfire, and compound events in which multiple extremes occur simultaneously. Jennie Rice, a senior research scientist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and IM3's Principal Investigator, explains that the TGW simulations indicate potential increases in extreme event intensity, geographic scope, and duration, including how previously non-extreme events could become extreme under a warmer future. Each historic event replays eight times in the simulations (once in each of the two 40-year future periods for each of the four scenarios). The scenarios span a wide range of future warming possibilities and are designed to show how the events of the previous 40 years (1980–2019) would "replay" under warmer conditions. Left to right: A historic heat wave event from 2012, the historic event replayed in 2052, and the historic event replayed in 2092 for one of the four scenarios. Credit: U.S. In this simulation of a future North America, purple and dark red indicate areas of more intense surface temperatures. The two teams worked together to create future scenarios, developing four simulations that look 80 years into the future of the United States, from 2020 to 2099. The two projects are funded by DOE's Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling program's MultiSector Dynamics and Regional & Global Model Analysis program areas, respectively. Department of Energy (DOE) projects, Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) and A Framework for Improving Analysis and Modeling of Earth System and Intersectoral Dynamics at Regional Scales (HyperFACETS). These scenarios are the result of a collaborative effort between two U.S. The approach is called thermodynamic global warming (TGW). To address these needs, a group of DOE-funded scientists recently released a set of high-resolution scenarios that span a range of plausible changes in U.S. TGW simulations: Modeling possible futures Such information, he adds, would give the research community "targeted regional climate impact simulations" that clarify local effects on infrastructure and society. projections that have finely detailed views across space and time, says Paul Ullrich, a professor of regional climate modeling at the University of California, Davis. There is an urgent need for credible U.S. What will the future look like, and how can our society plan to adapt to that future? The consequences of changing Earth systems are global. ![]()
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